Highest temperature in London on June 16?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism pulls directly from Wunderground's historical weather database for that specific station and date, requiring no manual verification once the day concludes. For programmatic traders, this creates a straightforward data-dependency: the resolution hinges entirely on a single numerical value captured by automated weather instrumentation, with no discretionary interpretation required.

London's June temperatures typically range between 18–24°C, though heat waves can push readings into the high 20s or low 30s. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing in an expectation of cooler-than-average conditions, or reflects sparse liquidity rather than genuine bearish sentiment on any particular temperature band. Historical precedent matters here: June 2022 saw London reach 32°C mid-month, whilst June 2012 peaked at 28°C. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference seasonal patterns against the specific range brackets offered.

The key variable is whether an Atlantic weather system delivers unsettled conditions or whether high-pressure systems establish themselves over the UK in mid-June. The Met Office publishes extended forecasts roughly two weeks ahead, though June 2026 forecasts remain unavailable until May. For conditional-order strategies, setting triggers based on Met Office updates or European model consensus (ECMWF) would allow automated position adjustments as the settlement date approaches. The Wunderground data feed updates daily, making this suitable for bot-based monitoring of live conditions as June 16 draws near.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in London on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.