Highest temperature in London on June 8?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

London's highest temperature on 8 June 2026 will be recorded at City Airport Station and settled against Wunderground's historical weather database. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning the final reading must be captured before noon or the market will reference the maximum already logged by that point. For automated traders, this creates a hard dependency on Wunderground's data refresh cycle—typically updated hourly but occasionally subject to station maintenance or sensor recalibration that can delay or alter historical entries.

June temperatures in London typically peak between 20–24°C, with extremes above 28°C occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available (the market description cuts off mid-sentence), or the resolution criteria remain ambiguous enough to deter participation. Historical precedent matters here: City Airport Station, located in Canary Wharf, often records 1–2°C higher than central London due to urban heat island effects and its riverside position, a detail worth factoring into range selection.

Programmatic traders should monitor the UK Met Office's extended forecast for early June 2026 and cross-reference any high-pressure systems that could drive temperatures above seasonal norms. Wunderground's API allows conditional order logic tied to forecast updates, though the market's reliance on a single station reading introduces basis risk—localised cloud cover or wind patterns on the day could shift outcomes within narrow bands. Verify the complete resolution criteria and available temperature ranges before committing capital, as the truncated market description suggests potential settlement ambiguity.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.