Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the highest afternoon temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 22 July, and the market resolves to the bracket containing that airport observation rather than a citywide average or a forecast. For a programme-driven workflow, the cleanest approach is to poll the Wunderground history page for KLAX after the settlement window closes, extract the day’s maximum in °F, and map it directly to the listed range; that avoids ambiguity from interim readings or alternative stations.

The current crowd price of 0% YES sits against an outcome set that has already largely concentrated in the mid-to-upper 70s, with the leading bucket at 76-77°F and a smaller tail at 78-79°F.[1] That is consistent with a coastal airport location where onshore flow often keeps highs below inland Los Angeles readings, even during regional heat episodes. For context, AccuWeather showed Los Angeles at 83°F with strong apparent heat, but that is a city reading rather than the settlement source and can overstate what KLAX itself records.[2]

The main catalysts to watch are the day’s marine-layer evolution, any late-morning push of warmer air inland, and whether the coastal breeze strengthens enough to cap the airport’s peak before early afternoon. A regional heat advisory is a relevant backdrop because it raises inland temperatures, but the market only cares about the single highest KLAX reading, so the key dependency is local airport conditions rather than basin-wide headlines.[3] For a trader using conditional orders or bot logic, the practical trigger is not the headline heat story but a live feed or end-of-day scrape from the exact Wunderground station page once the day has fully completed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.