Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles International Airport’s highest temperature on 26 July 2026 will be the settlement input, taken from Wunderground’s daily history page for KLAX. That makes this a straightforward data-extraction market: a programmatic trader would typically poll the source page after the observation day, normalise the Fahrenheit value, and map it to the market’s predefined bins rather than trying to forecast a continuous number. [1][2]

The crowd is currently priced around the middle of the range, with 80–81°F leading at 50% and 74–75°F close behind at 49%, while the live probability for a 0% YES outcome signals the market is already treating the event as effectively settled or the chosen contract as outside the expected band. For context, late-July highs at LAX are usually only a few degrees apart from one another, so traders should read the distribution as a narrow temperature-continuum bet rather than a binary weather call. [1]

For hands-on monitoring, the useful catalysts are the day’s hourly temperature trace, any late-afternoon marine-layer push, and the final daily maximum once the observation window closes. In practice, bots or conditional orders would watch for the Wunderground update, compare it against the relevant strike intervals, and only then arbitrate between adjacent outcomes; that matters because a one-degree swing can flip the winning bucket in these range markets. [1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.