Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 9 July 2026, a date historically prone to warm, stable conditions driven by high pressure off the coast. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a "YES" outcome, suggesting the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific resolution range, likely below the threshold in question. This stark probability contrasts with historical July data, where daily highs in Los Angeles typically range from 79°F to 90°F, with an average of 85°F[1]. Recent prediction markets for adjacent dates, such as 7 July and 8 July, resolved with highs between 73°F and 76°F[3][8], indicating a potential cooling trend or variance from the long-term average that traders must account for programmatically.

A power-user approaching this market programmatically would monitor high-pressure systems moving inland and heat advisories issued by the National Weather Service, as these are primary catalysts for temperature spikes. Recent weather reports from ABC7 News and KSL Sports highlight that high pressure is shifting, potentially causing temperatures to run warmer than the previous day before a slight cooldown on Friday[7][10]. Traders should also watch for real-time Wunderground data updates, the official resolution source, to validate if the 76–77°F range is plausible[5]. Given the volatility in adjacent markets and the current 0% probability, a conditional order strategy might be employed to hedge against the unexpected, provided the data confirms the high-pressure system's influence on the airport station[2]. The settlement window closing on 12:00 UTC on 9 July 2026 demands precise timing for any automated execution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.