Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s airport temperature is usually tracked against a hot, dry July baseline, so the key question is whether the day prints a routine summer high or something closer to a spike. Recent reference pages put late-July Madrid highs in the mid-30s Celsius, with one local forecast for 31 July calling for about 38°C in the city and other monthly guides showing July daily maxima commonly around 31–33°C, with hotter outliers above 37°C.[4][6][15] For a programme-driven approach, the relevant input is the *airport station’s* daily maximum on Wunderground, not city-centre readings, so automated traders should key off the station-specific history page and not broader Madrid forecasts.[1]

A 0% YES crowd price is consistent with a market that has already entered the settlement day while the outcome is still unknown, rather than a strong view that the temperature will miss the target range. In practice, these markets are best read by comparing the implied range against Madrid’s normal summer envelope and against any live forecast revisions through the morning, especially if the day starts near the upper 30s. Madrid’s July climatology is hot enough that a high in the low-to-mid 30s is ordinary, while values in the upper 30s are less common but well within historical possibility.[6][9]

What matters over the rest of the session is whether forecast models, airport observations, or regional heat advisories nudge expectations higher before the Wunderground daily high is locked in. Traders using bots or conditional orders would typically watch scheduled forecast updates, then map the latest airport temperature to the market’s discrete settlement bands rather than the headline city forecast, since the resolution source is a single station reading.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.