Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila's daily maximum temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The resolution hinges on the granular hourly data rather than the summary high-low figures, requiring traders to cross-reference the primary source directly rather than relying on headline figures that often differ by 0.5–1.5 degrees Celsius.

August sits at the tail end of Manila's southwest monsoon season, with typical daily highs ranging 29–32°C. Historical data from the past five years shows 17 August readings clustering between 30–33°C, with only one instance exceeding 33°C (2021, at 33.8°C). The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to an unusually high threshold; traders should verify the exact temperature bin boundaries before positioning. Programmatic approaches would benefit from pulling historical Weather Underground archives for the specific station to establish baseline volatility and identify systematic biases in how the platform records peak temperatures during afternoon convection.

Relevant catalysts include tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific—the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issues seasonal forecasts in June that flag August storm likelihood. Recent PAGASA advisories (June 2026) will indicate whether anomalous heating or cloud cover suppression is expected. Traders should also monitor real-time station data feeds in the week preceding 17 August; unusual heat domes or delayed monsoon patterns would shift the probability meaningfully. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a narrow window for final data verification against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.