Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport on 1 July 2026, a date falling squarely within Manila’s wet season when cloud cover and rainfall typically suppress extreme heat. Long-term averages show daytime highs in Manila during July rarely exceed 31°C, with very high humidity and frequent showers acting as natural cooling mechanisms[2][3]. Historical data confirms that April is the hottest month, while July sees average highs around 28–31°C, making a 34°C peak statistically improbable under normal conditions[3][5]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome above 34°C aligns with this climatic reality, though the market frontrunner at 100% for 34°C suggests a potential mispricing or data anomaly that a programmatically savvy trader would immediately flag for arbitrage[1].

A critical catalyst for this date is the active Tropical Depression “HENRY,” currently positioned 240 km west-southwest of Abucay, Bataan, and moving westward with sustained winds of 45 km/h[4]. PAGASA has issued a thunderstorm watch for Greater Metro Manila, indicating that rain and cloud cover are more likely than clear skies, which would further limit temperature spikes[4]. Traders monitoring this market programmatically should integrate real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and PAGASA alerts into their conditional order logic, as the presence of HENRY significantly increases the probability of temperatures staying below 30°C[4][9]. The settlement window ends 2026-07-01T12:00:00Z, meaning any late-afternoon thunderstorms could invalidate a high-temperature outcome, reinforcing the need for automated dependency checks on live weather updates before executing trades.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.