Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Mexico City's daily high temperature on 24 July 2026 will be recorded at Benito Juárez International Airport, the official meteorological station for the capital. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical data feed for that specific date, requiring programmatic verification of the station's ICAO code (MMMX) and timezone handling to avoid timestamp drift across UTC conversions.

July represents Mexico City's peak rainy season, with afternoon convection typically suppressing afternoon highs to 24–27°C, though the city's 2,250-metre elevation moderates extremes compared to lower Mexican regions. Historical July maxima at the airport cluster between 26–28°C; the 30-year average high sits near 26°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting temperature range options or treating this as a calibration test rather than a genuine forecast event. Comparable July days in 2023 and 2024 saw highs of 25–27°C, establishing a tight baseline for range-setting.

Traders automating this market should monitor Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) forecasts released 5–7 days prior, which flag heat domes or unusual pressure systems. Recent June 2024 data showed Mexico City experienced a brief warming event pushing highs to 28°C, though July typically remains cooler. API integration with Wunderground's historical endpoint requires authentication and rate-limiting; conditional orders triggered on SMN alerts for "calor extremo" warnings would capture edge cases where upper-range settlements become viable. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, creating a 12-hour lag for traders in North American timezones.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.