Highest temperature in Munich on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's daily maximum temperature on 14 July 2026 will be recorded at the airport weather station and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle before final resolution. This is a straightforward instrumental reading with no subjective interpretation—the highest temperature recorded during the calendar day determines the outcome bracket.

Munich's July climate sits in a predictable band. Historical records show daily maxima between 24–28°C in mid-July under typical conditions, with occasional excursions to 30°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity across all brackets. Comparable European airport stations show July variance of roughly ±3°C from the 30-year mean, making this a low-volatility event relative to seasonal extremes. Traders building algorithmic feeds should cross-reference DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) forecasts and European medium-range models, which typically stabilise 10–14 days ahead.

Atmospheric drivers to monitor include high-pressure systems tracking across central Europe in early July and any Atlantic troughs that might suppress temperatures. German meteorological bulletins and ECMWF ensemble runs will offer the most granular signal; Wunderground's historical data feed itself is accessible programmatically for backtesting resolution accuracy. The airport station's elevation (445 metres) and urban heat-island effects are fixed factors, so variance hinges entirely on synoptic conditions in the fortnight preceding the event.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.