Highest temperature in Munich on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich will experience some temperature on 24 July 2026, and this market resolves based on which range contains the highest reading recorded at Munich Airport Station that day. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific location, accessible via their daily archive interface. Traders verifying outcomes will need to navigate to the Munich Airport (EDDM) station page, toggle the temperature unit to Celsius using the settings gear icon, and cross-reference the recorded high against the market's predefined ranges.

July temperatures in Munich historically cluster between 23–28°C for daily highs, with occasional excursions above 30°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable European summer markets show that airport station readings tend to run 1–2°C cooler than city-centre measurements due to elevation and exposure, a factor worth accounting for when evaluating range boundaries. Historical data from Wunderground itself provides the baseline: reviewing prior July 24th records for Munich reveals typical highs in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius.

Traders automating this market should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-July onwards, particularly the German Meteorological Institute's (Deutscher Wetterdienst) extended outlook. Heat dome formation over Central Europe typically signals 7–10 days in advance. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 24 July, meaning real-time temperature tracking becomes relevant only on the day itself; conditional order logic should account for Wunderground's update frequency, which typically reflects airport observations within 30 minutes of recording.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Munich on July 24? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.