Highest temperature in NYC on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's highest temperature on 10 August 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement determined by that primary source rather than the Day High & Low summary. The market bins outcomes into temperature ranges, and the 2% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an exceptionally hot day—one that would rank among the most extreme August readings in the region's recorded history.

Historical August maxima at LaGuardia provide calibration. Since 1940, the airport has recorded only three days exceeding 98°F in August, with the all-time August high of 102°F occurring on 9 August 1936 (before LaGuardia's official opening). Post-1940 data shows August typically peaks between 82°F and 88°F, with readings above 95°F occurring roughly once per decade. The current 2% probability reflects the rarity of extreme heat in this window; traders evaluating this market should cross-reference NOAA's historical temperature database and establish their own baseline for what constitutes the uppermost settlement bins.

For programmatic traders, the key dependency is the National Weather Service's seasonal forecast, typically updated monthly through June and July 2026. Any significant heat dome positioning over the Northeast in early August would warrant monitoring; conversely, Atlantic tropical activity or upper-level troughs could suppress temperatures. Weather Underground's API documentation confirms the Daily Observations endpoint updates daily, allowing automated tracking of actual conditions as 10 August approaches. Conditional orders tied to NWS extended outlooks would be the primary tool for managing exposure across temperature bins.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.