Highest temperature in NYC on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak heat recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 1 July 2026, where forecasts predict daily highs between 81°F and 99°F with overnight lows of 68°F to 83°F[2]. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for a specific outcome, likely reflecting a mismatch between the market’s resolution range and the expected 80s temperatures reported for that morning[1]. A power-user evaluating this tooling would programmatically query Wunderground’s historical API for KLGA on the settlement date, cross-referencing the 1966 all-time record of 107°F to establish a baseline for extreme outliers[6].

Historical climate normals show a maximum of 100°F recorded in 2021, while typical July highs hover near 85°F, framing the current probability as a bet on whether the day will breach the upper 90s or remain in the mid-80s[3]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climatological reports for LaGuardia, which update hourly with maximum temperature data, as these are the primary dependencies for settlement[9]. Recent updates indicate isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon could suppress peak heat, a catalyst that bots must weigh against the 80s forecast to adjust conditional orders[1]. No moralising is required; the data simply dictates that the settlement hinges on whether the heat index reaches 99°F or stays below the 80s threshold[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.