Highest temperature in NYC on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 12 July 2026, a date currently sitting in the midst of an unprecedented East Coast heatwave that has already shattered records. Programmatic traders evaluating this instrument must account for the fact that the current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, despite the region experiencing its most severe thermal event in decades.

Historical context from the early July 2026 surge shows LaGuardia hitting 104°F on 3 July, breaking a 1966 record by three degrees, while midnight temperatures reached 94°F, the station's highest ever [1][3]. This sustained anomaly suggests that standard seasonal averages of 73–91°F are no longer reliable baselines for algorithmic models [2]. The sheer magnitude of the recent breakouts indicates that any model relying on pre-2026 climatology will likely underprice the probability of extreme highs, making the current zero-implied probability a significant statistical outlier against the observed trend.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service climatological reports and real-time Wunderground feeds for the specific KLGA station as the settlement window closes [9]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the heat dome, which has already caused 29 fatalities in New Jersey and driven temperatures to 107°F at LaGuardia on 3 July [3][10]. Automated strategies must integrate these live dependencies, as the resolution source is strictly the highest daily reading from Wunderground, meaning any gap between forecast models and actual station data could create immediate arbitrage opportunities before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.