Highest temperature in NYC on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 July 2026, resolving via Wunderground’s daily history for station KLGA. Although the current crowd-implied probability for a specific outcome sits at 0% YES, the frontrunner is actually the 96–97°F range at 54%, with 94–95°F trailing at 32%[1]. This distribution suggests the zero probability reflects a misalignment in the user’s view of the specific outcome rather than a consensus that no heat event will occur.

Historical July peaks in NYC frequently breach 95°F, and the recent July 2026 heatwave shattered records across the East Coast, including NYC, DC, and Atlantic City, breaking standings that lasted up to 154 years[3]. Programmatic traders should model this by pulling LaGuardia’s historical daily maxima from the National Weather Service to establish a baseline distribution[2]. The 0% figure likely stems from a specific range selection error in the bot’s logic rather than a genuine absence of heat risk, given the documented trend of extreme summer temperatures in the region.

Key catalysts include the official National Weather Service forecast for the NYC area and real-time Wunderground updates as the settlement window approaches 2026-07-14T12:00:00Z. Traders running conditional orders must monitor the hourly temperature feed for KLGA, as a single hour exceeding the threshold resolves the market immediately. The recent record-breaking heatwave confirms that East Coast summers are increasingly volatile, making static probability models less reliable than dynamic, data-driven approaches that adjust to live atmospheric conditions[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.