Highest temperature in NYC on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine the settlement of this weather prediction market, with data sourced from Wunderground’s daily history for station KLGA. The market resolves to the Fahrenheit range containing that peak reading, and the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES reflects a specific outcome threshold that has not yet been triggered by any forecast or historical precedent for this date.

Historical mid-July highs at LaGuardia typically cluster between 90°F and 98°F, with extreme outliers reaching 99°F only during prolonged heatwaves. Recent data shows 98–99°F as the frontrunner at 41% probability, followed by 96–97°F at 20%, indicating the market expects a hot but not record-breaking day [1]. The 0% YES probability likely corresponds to a threshold above 99°F, which has occurred fewer than five times in the past 50 years at this station, making it a low-probability event under normal climatic conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for New York City, particularly any updates on heat advisories or high-pressure systems moving over the Northeast. A recent NWS bulletin highlights the importance of tracking the position of the Bermuda High, which can amplify temperatures if it stalls over the region [2]. Programmatically, this market is best approached by querying Wunderground’s API for real-time KLGA data and cross-referencing with NWS forecast models to adjust conditional orders as the settlement window closes at 2026-07-15T12:00:00Z.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.