Highest temperature in NYC on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 16 July 2026, resolving via Wunderground’s daily history for station KLGA. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date, the current 73% YES probability implies a strong crowd consensus that temperatures will breach a specific threshold, likely the 90°F mark given the frontrunner outcomes of 90–91°F and 92–93°F holding 28% and 29% respectively [1].

Historical mid-July readings at LaGuardia frequently cluster between 85°F and 95°F, making the current implied probability of exceeding 90°F statistically plausible but not guaranteed. A programmatic approach would backtest KLGA’s July 16 highs over the past decade to calibrate the volatility surface, noting that years with high-pressure systems often push peaks into the 92–94°F range. The 73% figure suggests the algorithmic crowd is pricing in a warm anomaly, yet the narrow spread between the top two outcomes indicates high uncertainty on the exact ceiling.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 72-hour forecast for the New York area, specifically the high-pressure ridge strength and dew point trends, as these directly dictate peak afternoon temperatures [2]. No specific announcements are required, but the dependency on real-time Wunderground data means any latency in station reporting could delay resolution. A bot strategy would likely place conditional orders tied to the 5-day forecast update, adjusting position size as the probability drifts away from the 73% baseline toward the historical mean.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.