Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and sourced from Wunderground. Today, an Extreme Heat Warning is active from 04:38 am until 09:00 pm on 4 July, with the National Weather Service forecasting a high of 100 °F for today alone[2]. Current readings show the temperature hit 102.0 °F at 3 PM EDT, confirming that conditions are already pushing into the upper ranges expected for this date[5].

Historical data frames the current 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges as a misreading of the season’s volatility; past records show LaGuardia reached 101 °F on 2 July 1966, while Newark Airport hit 103 °F on the same date in 1901[6]. AccuWeather’s monthly forecast for July 2026 indicates daily highs ranging from 81° to 99°, yet the market frontrunner is now 98–99 °F at 27%, with 100–101 °F at 22%, suggesting traders are pricing in the extreme heat event rather than the average[1][4]. A programmatically minded trader would monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates via API, setting conditional orders to trigger if the 100 °F threshold is breached before settlement.

The primary catalyst is the ongoing heat warning, which depends on atmospheric stability and cloud cover over the next two days. Traders should watch the National Weather Service’s hourly bulletins for any shifts in the warning duration or intensity, as these directly influence the peak temperature outcome[2]. No new announcements are scheduled, but the dependency on real-time sensor data from LaGuardia means the market will resolve strictly on the highest recorded value, making live monitoring essential for accurate positioning.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.