Highest temperature in NYC on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Fahrenheit reading at LaGuardia Airport on 20 July 2026, a specific meteorological event settled via Wunderground history. With the settlement window closing in under 24 hours and the crowd-implied probability for any outcome sitting at 0% YES, the current pricing suggests a near-total consensus that the market data is either frozen or the event has already resolved outside the expected ranges. This zero probability is anomalous for a live weather event, indicating a potential liquidity stall or a data feed disconnect rather than a genuine forecast of impossible temperatures.

Historically, mid-July in New York City routinely sees highs between 80°F and 90°F, with the July 2026 heatwave recently shattering records across the East Coast, including NYC, where temperatures exceeded long-standing benchmarks for over a century[2]. Programmatic traders evaluating this tooling would flag the 0% figure as a critical failure point in the oracle integration, as comparable cases from previous heatwaves show that even extreme outliers rarely drop the probability of a valid range to absolute zero unless the market is technically broken. The frontrunner outcome of 82–83°F currently holds 100% probability on the primary exchange, contradicting the 0% YES figure seen here and highlighting a severe data inconsistency[1].

A trader automating positions on this market must monitor the Wunderground API status and the official LaGuardia station feed for the final daily update, as the settlement depends entirely on this single data point. The immediate catalyst is the release of the official daily summary for 20 July, which will confirm the peak temperature and trigger resolution. Recent reporting confirms that the East Coast heatwave broke records simultaneously across a 500-mile corridor, making the 82–83°F range a statistically probable outcome rather than an anomaly[2]. Any automated bot should treat the 0% probability as a signal to pause execution until the oracle updates, rather than a valid signal to short the market.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.