Highest temperature in NYC on July 22?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport** on 22 July 2026, using Wunderground’s daily history page as the settlement source. For a programmatic workflow, that means the cleanest approach is to monitor the day’s final published daily maximum rather than intraday readings, since the market only resolves once the first data point for the following date appears on the source page.[1]

The current **0% YES** price is consistent with a market that has already passed its settlement day and is awaiting the source publication rather than new weather uncertainty. In practical terms, historical July weather in New York City usually centres on warm, humid highs around 30°C, while recent guidance ahead of 22 July pointed to a more moderate **83–87°F** range after the mid-July heatwave; that makes an extreme top-end outcome less likely than a routine summer high.[1][2] The broader backdrop also matters: July 2026 already produced record-breaking East Coast heat earlier in the month, so traders who model this mechanically would typically treat a prior heatwave as a volatility input rather than a reason to assume a repeat the next day.[3]

For timing, the main catalyst is not a forecast update but the daily archive publication on the resolution source, which is what determines whether the final high is captured cleanly. A bot or conditional-order setup would therefore key off the LaGuardia history page refresh, compare the reported maximum against the market’s temperature bands, and avoid acting on intermediate estimates until the source confirms the settled day.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 22? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.