Highest temperature in NYC on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

LaGuardia Airport’s highest temperature on 23 July is the settlement input, so the live task is to estimate the day’s peak reading rather than the citywide average or a forecast high for Manhattan. With the current crowd position concentrated in the 80–81°F band and the next band at 82–83°F, the implied view is that the market expects a warm but not extreme summer day, which matters because a one- or two-degree move can shift the contract into a different bucket.[1]

For calibration, a useful programme is to compare the day against recent July outcomes in the same venue rather than against long-run NYC norms. A nearby precedent from early July 2026 resolved in the low 70s, showing how quickly marine influence, cloud cover, and timing can cap the airport reading even in midsummer.[3] That is why power users often model this market off hourly forecast curves and airport-specific observations, not broad “New York heat” headlines. Recent East Coast records were still being broken in July 2026, which shows the region can deliver sharp heat spikes when a ridge locks in, but those events are episodic rather than automatic.[2]

The main catalysts are the afternoon forecast revisions, any heat advisory or thunderstorm timing, and whether sea-breeze or cloud cover suppresses the peak around LaGuardia’s standard observation window. A programmatic approach would ingest hourly forecast temperatures, dew point, wind direction, and precipitation probabilities, then map the maximum forecasted airport temperature to the contract bands while monitoring late updates from weather services. If the National Weather Service adjusts the expected peak by even 1°F, the implied probability across adjacent bins can move materially, especially when the market is already clustered around a narrow range.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.