Highest temperature in NYC on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

New York City's peak temperature on 24 July 2026 will be measured at LaGuardia Airport and resolved against historical weather data from Wunderground. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full diurnal cycle recorded at the station before the market locks. This creates a straightforward data-matching exercise: the highest reading across all 24 hours on that date determines which temperature bracket wins.

July temperatures at LaGuardia historically cluster between 82–88°F, with extremes reaching into the low 90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either no active traders or systematic underweighting of mid-summer heat risk. Comparable July days over the past decade show that 85–90°F ranges capture roughly 60% of outcomes, whilst readings above 90°F occur in approximately 15–20% of cases. Traders building conditional orders or bot-driven strategies should weight recent climate patterns: New York has experienced three heat waves exceeding 95°F in July since 2019, indicating tail risk is non-negligible.

The National Weather Service issues extended forecasts roughly 10–14 days ahead, with meaningful precision arriving 5–7 days before the settlement date. Atmospheric patterns in late July depend on Atlantic hurricane activity, jet stream positioning, and Bermuda High strength—factors typically flagged in mid-July outlooks. Programmatic traders should monitor NWS zone forecasts and historical analogue years (2019, 2021, 2022) when similar synoptic setups produced extreme heat. Wunderground's historical archive updates in real time, enabling automated resolution verification once the date passes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.