Highest temperature in NYC on July 26?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 July, measured in Fahrenheit and settled from the day’s high rather than the noon reading or a forecast. For a programmatic trader, that means the useful input is not a weather headline but the intraday high distribution for KLGA, with order placement better tied to live temperature updates, airport METAR feeds, and any late-afternoon thermal spike that could move the final print.

The current crowd-implied 0% YES looks inconsistent with the live market snapshot, which had **84-85°F** as the leading bin at **41%** and **82-83°F** next at **36%**. In practical terms, the market was already clustering around the mid-80s outcome, so a zero probability is the sort of reading a bot would flag as stale, misparsed, or disconnected from the current contract ladder rather than as a genuine consensus view.[1] Recent NYC heat coverage also points to the city’s tendency to run hot enough to trigger cooling-centre use and prolonged midday risk windows, which matters because LaGuardia often tracks the broader borough heat profile while still being sensitive to sea-breeze effects and cloud cover.[3]

A power-user watching this market would focus on any forecast revisions, heat advisories, and the hourly temperature path on the day itself, because those are the catalysts that change the final high more than overnight conditions. The most actionable setup is to combine scheduled event data with automated refreshes of local weather history pages and airport observations, then route conditional orders around threshold moves in the implied high bins; that is especially useful when the market sits near a boundary such as 83-84°F, where a one-degree revision can change the winning range.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 26? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.