Highest temperature in NYC on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 27 July 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data from Weather Underground's archive for that specific station and date, with the resolution tied to a single daily maximum reading rather than an average or forecast value. This creates a discrete outcome space suitable for automated resolution via API queries to the Weather Underground history endpoint.

New York City's July temperatures have historically clustered between 82°F and 92°F, with extremes occasionally breaching into the mid-90s during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be newly listed or awaiting clearer range definitions; comparable July temperature markets typically see meaningful probability mass distributed across 85–95°F bands. LaGuardia's urban heat island effect and proximity to water create measurable variance from broader regional forecasts, making station-specific historical data essential for calibration.

Traders monitoring this market should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast window as July 2026 approaches, particularly any heat dome or Atlantic high-pressure system advisories issued in early July. Climate pattern indices—the North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture anomalies—influence multi-week temperature persistence. For programmatic traders, integrating conditional orders against Weather Underground's API would enable automated position adjustments as forecast confidence increases within the final fortnight before settlement, whilst accounting for the typical 2–3°F daily variance between preliminary and finalised station records.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.