Highest temperature in NYC on July 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime heat recorded at New York City’s LaGuardia Airport on 3 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. This specific date sits within an active heat dome that has already driven unprecedented nighttime warmth across the East Coast, with LaGuardia hitting 94°F at midnight on 2 July—a record high for that hour [1][6]. Historical parallels from the 2013 heatwave and the 1966 daily peak show that when midnight temperatures breach 93°F, daytime highs frequently surge past 100°F, often reaching 102–104°F [1][4]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the highest range, yet recent data indicates a strong statistical likelihood of extreme daytime peaks given the sustained thermal mass [2][4].

Traders approaching this market programmatically should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for LaGuardia’s hourly maxima, alongside dependencies on JFK and Bridgeport readings which have already tied record highs for early July [3][7]. Key catalysts include the continuation of the heat dome, with no scheduled precipitation or cooling wind shifts forecast for 3 July, and the statistical correlation between midnight records and subsequent daytime extremes [1][5]. A recent Fox Weather report confirms that the heat dome remains “boiling” over the East Coast, reinforcing the expectation that daytime highs will exceed 100°F if the current pattern persists [1]. For conditional order bots, setting alerts on Wunderground’s 100°F threshold at LaGuardia provides a precise entry signal, while cross-referencing with NWS data ensures resolution accuracy [4][8]. The absence of cooling mechanisms and the presence of record-breaking nighttime warmth create a high-probability scenario for extreme daytime temperatures.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.