Highest temperature in NYC on July 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant real-world event is the **daily high temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 30 July 2026**, as recorded by Wunderground, with settlement tied to the highest reading reached during that calendar day. For a programme that scores weather markets mechanically, the cleanest approach is to treat this as a single-observation event: ingest the station’s day page, poll the high value once the local day is complete, and map the final Fahrenheit figure into the market’s settlement band rather than trying to infer from citywide forecasts.

The current 0% YES price implies the market is pricing an outcome below the relevant threshold range, but historically New York summer highs can still swing enough to move a daily-temperature market by several degrees. Nearby station data show late-July highs in the high 80s on recent dates, with a broader July 2026 pattern that included at least one 100°F reading earlier in the month at New York City monitoring sites, underlining that extreme heat is possible even if not every day reaches it.[1][3][4] For a trader using bots or conditional orders, the practical lesson is to key off station-specific bias: LaGuardia often differs from Manhattan and other regional readings, so citywide headlines are only a proxy, not the settlement source.[11][12]

The main catalysts are forecast revisions, heat advisories, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, and any convective rain that suppresses the afternoon peak. The National Weather Service’s New York products and local forecast updates tend to move expectations most when they shift the daytime maximum or the timing of peak heating, while high-resolution hourly forecasts can help a script update implied bands before midday.[11] Since the market only resolves on the final Wunderground high for KLGA, a programmatic workflow should watch the forecasted max versus the observed hourly temperature profile, then freeze once the local day ends and the station page stops printing a higher number.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.