Highest temperature in NYC on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak heat at New York’s LaGuardia Airport on 4 July 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. Despite the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome being listed, the broader market consensus actually forecasts a July 4 high near 95°F under mostly sunny skies that transition to afternoon thunderstorms [1]. Historical precedents frame this probability sharply: LaGuardia recently recorded its hottest midnight temperature ever at 94°F, breaking a record set in 2013, proving that extreme heat can linger well past sunset [3]. The average high for July at this station ranges from 81° to 99°, meaning a 98–99°F peak remains a credible frontrunner with a 41% implied chance in the wider market [1][5].

A power-user approaching this programmatically must monitor the shift from sunny conditions to thunderstorms, as precipitation will directly suppress the daily maximum temperature. Traders should watch the National Weather Service time-series for KLGA, which currently shows readings stabilising around 91°F at midday, indicating the ceiling is being tested [7]. The key catalyst is the timing of the afternoon storm front; if it arrives before the peak heat window, the temperature will fail to reach the 98°F threshold. Recent weather reports confirm that heat waves in this region often produce record-breaking overnight lows, suggesting the thermal inertia is high enough to sustain extreme highs even with cloud cover [4]. Conditional orders should be set to exit if Wunderground data shows a drop below 95°F before 15:00 UTC, as this signals the storm front has already impacted the peak.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.