Highest temperature in NYC on July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest daytime temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 7 July 2026, with the market currently assigning a mere 3% probability to a specific high-temperature outcome. This low figure reflects the immediate cooling trend following the early July heatwave, where a frontal passage has already pushed mid-70s readings into the most probable range for the preceding day, July 6 [3]. Historical context from the recent heat spike shows LaGuardia hitting 102°F on 4 July, yet the subsequent drop to 77°F on 6 July demonstrates the volatility that traders must weigh against the current 3% implied probability [2][9].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor the National Weather Service climate summaries and Wunderground hourly updates for any sudden reversal of the cooling front, as the settlement relies strictly on the daily maximum [7][9]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the frontal passage; if the front stalls or retreats, temperatures could rebound toward the July forecast average of 81–99°F, invalidating the current low-probability stance [5]. Traders should also track the midnight temperature records, as the station recently set a historic 94°F midnight reading, indicating that residual heat could linger if the front weakens, a dependency highlighted by recent reports on the East Coast heat wave [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.