Highest temperature in NYC on July 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 8 July 2026, with the market currently pricing a zero per cent chance of the highest range being hit. Historical data frames this probability starkly: LaGuardia recently hit 102°F on 4 July 2026, the highest midnight temperature on record at 94°F, while July 3 saw 101°F, the second-warmest day in recent memory[1][3]. These figures suggest that extreme heat is already active in the region, making a zero per cent crowd-implied probability for the upper range appear statistically disconnected from the prevailing weather pattern, as similar heatwaves in 2013 and 1953 also produced temperatures exceeding 100°F[1][8].

A power-user evaluating this tooling would approach the market programmatically by monitoring Wunderground’s hourly updates for KLGA, specifically watching for the 101°F threshold that has been breached twice in early July 2026[3][8]. The primary catalyst is the continuation of the current East Coast heatwave, which has lingered into the night with record-breaking warmth[1]. Traders should watch the National Weather Service’s daily forecast for New York, which predicts July highs between 81°F and 90°F, though recent anomalies have pushed this well above the average[7]. The dependency lies in whether the heatwave persists through the settlement window, as the 102°F peak on 4 July indicates the atmosphere is primed for further extremes[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.