Highest temperature in NYC on June 11?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a single daily high temperature on 11 June 2026, measured in Fahrenheit and logged by the National Weather Service station there. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that recorded maximum, with settlement data pulled directly from Weather Underground's historical archive for that specific date and location.

New York City's June temperatures cluster predictably around 75–85°F, with historical medians near 79°F for the date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either waiting for forecast data closer to the event or treating this as a calibration exercise on baseline climate normals. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show extremes ranging from 62°F to 94°F across the past two decades, meaning the resolution range likely spans multiple bands. Automated traders building conditional orders should note that June heat waves in the Northeast typically correlate with high-pressure systems tracking from the Midwest; such patterns become visible in extended forecasts roughly 10–14 days prior.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track the National Weather Service's New York office briefings and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center outlooks for early June 2026. Upper-air pattern shifts—particularly the position of the jet stream and any tropical moisture advection—drive daily highs in this window. Weather Underground's API allows direct querying of historical data post-settlement, making this market suitable for backtesting forecast accuracy models against actual recorded temperatures.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.