Highest temperature in NYC on June 12?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport will record a daily high temperature on 12 June 2026, and this market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that reading as measured by Weather Underground's historical database. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, giving traders access to the full day's temperature data before resolution occurs. The data source is standardised and publicly accessible, making this market suitable for automated monitoring via Weather Underground's API or scheduled scraping routines that cross-reference against the KLGA station identifier.

June temperatures at LaGuardia typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical medians around 79°F. The 100% crowd probability suggests traders are confident the event will occur—which it will, as temperature recording is certain—rather than expressing conviction about which specific band will resolve. This distinction matters for conditional order logic: the market outcome is guaranteed, but the granularity of the temperature band determines which position settles in-the-money. Reviewing the past five years of June 12th highs at LaGuardia provides calibration data; the National Weather Service maintains this archive alongside Weather Underground's records.

Traders should monitor the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's extended forecast for the New York region as mid-June approaches. Heat waves or unusual weather patterns affecting the Northeast typically emerge in seasonal outlooks 10–14 days prior. Since this market settles on actual recorded data rather than predictions, the primary catalyst is simply the weather itself; no policy announcements or schedule changes alter the underlying event. Automated systems can flag when forecast models diverge significantly from historical June norms, signalling potential movement across temperature bands.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.