Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the **highest temperature** recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 June 2026, as reported by Weather Underground for KLGA. For a programmatic trader, the key operational point is that the market settles on the *day’s maximum*, not an average, so intraday spikes matter more than the morning headline forecast or overnight lows.

The current **0% YES** implies the crowd sees the listed settlement bins as effectively impossible or mispriced, which is unusual when set against recent NYC temperature markets. On 19 June, the comparable Polymarket market resolved entirely into **82-83°F** with $118.8K volume, while the 21 May market resolved into **66-67°F** with $109.6K volume, showing that these contracts can concentrate sharply once the weather regime becomes clear. The National Weather Service’s LaGuardia climatology puts the **normal maximum at 83°F** for 21 June, with a recorded **maximum of 98°F** for that date, so the long-run anchor is warm even though the realised outcome depends on the synoptic setup.

A trader watching this mechanically would track the daily NWS temperature series, the Weather Underground history page, and the next forecast updates for NYC and the airport station, then update probabilities when model runs shift the afternoon peak, cloud cover, sea-breeze timing, or thunderstorm risk. In practice, the highest temperature usually becomes more readable within the final 24-48 hours, when consensus forecasts narrow and any programme built around conditional orders or automated alerts can key off changes in the likely noon-to-5 pm range rather than the overnight baseline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.