Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, a metric that will determine the outcome of this prediction market. Historical data from comparable dates in early summer shows that New York City typically experiences highs between 75°F and 88°F during June, with LaGuardia specifically averaging around 75.6°F for the month[5]. Recent markets for adjacent dates, such as 21 June and 8 June, have clustered tightly around 74–85°F, assigning near-100% probability to these ranges while dismissing outcomes below 69°F as negligible[2][3]. This consistent pattern suggests that a 0% YES probability for the current market likely reflects a mispricing or an extremely narrow temperature range definition rather than an expectation of anomalous cold.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor daily climatological reports and numerical weather models, which currently project highs near 79–84°F for the region[2]. Key catalysts include the release of the official climatological report from the National Weather Service, which confirms the maximum temperature for the day, and any severe weather announcements that could disrupt typical thermal patterns[8]. While severe weather events, such as the flight groundings seen in late June 2025, can introduce volatility, they rarely push temperatures below the seasonal baseline[9]. A power-user evaluating tooling would script conditional orders to trigger on the Wunderground data feed, ensuring execution aligns with the official resolution source before the settlement window closes[7]. The market’s tight clustering around mid-summer norms indicates that deviations are unlikely unless a specific, high-impact weather system intervenes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.