Highest temperature in NYC on June 24?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the daily maximum temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 24 June 2026, which recent National Weather Service models project will fall between 82–85 °F[1]. This forecast aligns with historical June patterns for the region, where the average high ranges from 77° to 92° and the peak daily temperature for the month typically occurs around 26 June at 83.6 °F[5][9]. The current market assigns a 99% probability to the 82–83 °F range, suggesting the 0% YES probability for higher outcomes reflects a tight consensus that the day will not breach the upper threshold of the seasonal average[1].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the LaGuardia station, cross-referencing them with NWS climatological reports issued daily at 253 PM[4]. The primary catalyst is the immediate weather model guidance, which currently points firmly to the 82–83 °F bracket, leaving little room for deviation unless a sudden heatwave disrupts the forecast[1]. Traders should watch for any updates to the National Weather Service’s daily climatological report, as these provide the definitive settlement data and confirm whether the maximum temperature aligns with the projected 82–85 °F range[1][4]. The dependency on Wunderground as the sole resolution source means any latency or data gap in their API could introduce settlement risk, requiring automated bots to validate timestamps against the official NWS release[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 24? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.