Highest temperature in NYC on June 26?

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Market context

The real-world event hinges on the maximum daily temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 26 June 2026, a specific meteorological data point that will determine the market resolution. Programmatic traders would approach this by querying the Weather Underground API directly for the KLGA station’s daily high, automating the fetch to bypass manual chart inspection and ensuring execution before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC.

Historical context from recent June dates in New York City frames the current 0% probability for lower ranges as entirely logical. On 7 June 2026, the National Weather Service confirmed a peak of 80–81°F at key reporting stations, while a scorching heatwave on 21 June pushed temperatures well above seasonal averages with intense afternoon heating and high humidity [2][3]. Climatological data for LaGuardia shows daily highs in June 2026 ranging from 77° to 92°F, with the record maximum for this date sitting at 84.2°F, making the 82–83°F range the frontrunner with 100% market confidence [1][7][9].

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s excessive heat warnings and cold front schedules, as these dependencies dictate whether the heat surge persists or breaks. A recent forecast indicated that high temperatures could surpass previous peaks in intensity by mid-week, though a cold front was expected to bring scattered thunderstorms and cooler air by Saturday night [4]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of warm air enveloping the Northeast, which has already driven afternoon temperatures into the high 80s to low 90s, confirming that lower temperature ranges are statistically improbable for this specific date [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.