Highest temperature in NYC on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

LaGuardia Airport's weather station will record a daily high temperature on 7 June 2026, and this market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that reading in Fahrenheit. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on that date, meaning traders have until the morning of 7 June to adjust positions based on overnight forecast updates. Resolution depends entirely on Wunderground's historical data pull for KLGA station, which archives hourly observations and derives the daily maximum from that sequence.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical normals around 79°F for the daily high. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific narrow band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Comparable June days at LaGuardia show occasional outliers: the record high for June sits at 96°F (1994), whilst cooler Junes have peaked in the low 70s during unsettled weather patterns. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should cross-reference the National Weather Service's climate normals database and consider that LaGuardia's urban heat island effect typically adds 2–3°F versus surrounding areas.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead, with meaningful refinement occurring 72 hours before the target date. Traders monitoring this market should track Atlantic ridge positioning and upper-level pattern shifts in late May and early June, as these drive whether subtropical air masses dominate or cooler systems push through the Northeast. Conditional order logic could trigger position adjustments once the 5-day deterministic forecast solidifies, allowing systematic rebalancing across temperature bands as model consensus strengthens.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 7? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.