Highest temperature in NYC on May 30?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 30 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market resolves based on historical weather data from Weather Underground's station records, which capture hourly readings throughout the day. The settlement window closes at midday UTC, meaning traders must account for the full calendar day's temperature swing across the New York metropolitan area.

New York's late May temperatures typically range between 70–85°F, with historical May 30th highs clustering around 78–82°F across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity across all outcome brackets. Comparable spring weather markets show that late-May forecasts stabilise meaningfully only within 7–10 days of the event; current pricing reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in seasonal weather prediction at this distance.

Traders implementing automated resolution monitoring should flag the Weather Underground historical data endpoint as their primary verification source, since the market explicitly references that platform's LaGuardia station records. Programmatic approaches would benefit from setting conditional alerts tied to National Weather Service extended forecasts, which typically shift confidence bands around 8–10 days out. The Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, so any tropical system tracking toward the Northeast in late May could materially alter temperature ranges; monitoring the National Hurricane Center's outlook from mid-May onwards provides early signal for outlier scenarios.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.