Highest temperature in Paris on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 12 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting traders expect the reading to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to typical mid-July variability rather than extreme heat.

Historically, Paris July highs average 23–25°C, rarely exceeding 31°C, though the 2019 heatwave pushed the city to 42.6°C on 25 July [4]. France’s national record reached 45.9°C in southern Gallargues-le-Montueux during a recent extreme event, but Paris itself has not matched such intensity [2][6]. The 0% probability aligns with the oceanic climate’s moderation: while hot spells occur, sustained extremes above 35°C at Le Bourget remain uncommon outside major regional heatwaves [1][4].

Traders should monitor the Meteo-France heatwave bulletins and the European Heatwatch network for early July forecasts, as red alerts often precede temperature spikes [9]. A key dependency is the 5–7 day forecast window closing 5–6 July; if no red alert is issued by then, the likelihood of extreme heat drops sharply. Recent NPR reporting confirms France entered a red-alert heatwave in late June 2026, but Paris-specific peaks remain the critical variable for settlement [9]. Programmatic approaches should parse Wunderground’s historical API for Le Bourget’s July 12 outliers and cross-reference with Meteo-France’s daily bulletins to model conditional order triggers.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.