Highest temperature in Paris on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 13 July 2026, with the crowd assigning only a 1% probability to the highest range. Historical data shows Paris afternoon maxima on this date typically centre near 35–36 °C, while the leading outcome in the broader market is 34 °C at 46% [1]. France’s all-time record of 45.9 °C occurred in southern Gallargues-le-Montueux, not Paris, and the city’s own peak remains 42.4 °C from 25 July 2019 [2][3]. This context suggests the 1% figure reflects a conservative outlier bet rather than a baseline expectation, as mid-July heatwaves in the Île-de-France region rarely breach 40 °C at official stations.

Programmatic traders should monitor the Meteo-France heatwave bulletins and the daily 06:00 UTC model runs from ECMWF, which often shift short-range temperature forecasts by 1–2 °C within 24 hours of settlement. A recent red heat-wave alert issued for France in June 2026 underscores the volatility of summer extremes, though it did not directly impact Paris’s peak [10]. The resolution depends entirely on Wunderground’s recorded maximum for Paris-Le Bourget, so any data gap or station anomaly would invalidate conditional orders tied to specific ranges. Copy-trading bots should weight the 34 °C and 35 °C outcomes heavily, as they capture 74% of the implied probability, while treating the 1% range as a low-liquidity hedge against a record-breaking event.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 13? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.