Highest temperature in Paris on July 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 15 July 2026, with settlement tied to Wunderground’s daily high for that specific station. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% YES, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the defined range, though the resolution threshold itself remains unspecified in the prompt. Historically, mid-July in Paris sees average highs of 26°C, with daily peaks ranging from 20°C to 43°C in extreme cases, meaning a 0% probability implies the market anticipates a notably cool day or a range set far above typical extremes [1].

Programmatically, traders should monitor real-time feeds from Wunderground’s LFPB station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 15 July 2026, automating conditional orders to capture mispriced odds if live data diverges from the crowd’s 0% stance. Key catalysts include the day’s synoptic weather forecast, particularly any high-pressure systems or cloud cover anomalies that could suppress temperatures below the 20°C lower bound of the historical range, or conversely, heatwave conditions pushing toward 40°C. While no specific news announcement is cited for this date, traders should watch Meteo France’s 24-hour forecast updates released on 14 July, which often dictate short-term temperature trajectories for the Paris region.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.