Highest temperature in Paris on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius reading at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 16 July 2026, with settlement locked to Wunderground’s daily maximum. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any specific outcome, yet the frontrunner is 33°C at 78%, followed by 34°C at 21%[1]. This divergence suggests the zero figure reflects a lack of consensus on a single bin rather than an expectation of no heat, as July highs in Paris typically span 20°C to 43°C, with an average high of 26°C[2].

Historically, mid-July in Paris frequently breaches 30°C, making the 33–34°C range statistically plausible given the 20–43°C historical envelope[2]. Programmatic traders should model this as a bounded normal distribution centred near 26°C but skewed by summer heatwaves, using the 78% weight on 33°C as a calibration anchor rather than a definitive forecast. The 0% implied probability likely stems from the market’s multi-bin structure where no single bin captures the full probability mass until liquidity concentrates.

Key catalysts include the European heatwave forecast schedules and daily meteorological updates from Météo-France, which often trigger sharp re-pricing as the settlement window narrows. Traders running conditional bots should monitor the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline and Wunderground’s real-time ingestion latency, as delays can create arbitrage windows between the official record and market pricing. No recent news announcements have shifted the baseline, but the 78% concentration on 33°C indicates the crowd already anticipates a warm day consistent with July’s upper-range variability[1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Paris on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.