Highest temperature in Paris on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 17 July 2026, with settlement dependent on Wunderground’s daily history for that specific station. Today’s crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome exceeding the current frontrunner, which is the 26°C range holding a 92% share of the market[1]. This near-certainty reflects the seasonal norm for mid-July in Paris, where historical highs typically cluster between 24°C and 28°C, making extreme deviations statistically improbable without a documented heatwave catalyst.

Programmatic traders should model this event using historical Wunderground data for LFPB, filtering for 17 July entries across the past decade to establish a baseline distribution. Comparable cases from 2019 and 2022 show Paris hitting 39°C and 42°C respectively during European heatwaves, but those were exceptional anomalies tied to specific atmospheric pressure systems; the current 0% probability suggests no such system is forecasted for 2026. A bot evaluating this would weight the 26°C outcome heavily unless real-time meteorological feeds indicate a sudden shift in the North Atlantic ridge.

Watch the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10-day ensemble predictions released daily at 00:00 UTC, as these provide the earliest signal of any emerging heatwave. Traders must also monitor Met France’s daily bulletins for Paris, which detail cloud cover and wind patterns that directly suppress peak temperatures. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 17 July 2026, conditional orders should trigger only if the 72-hour forecast shows a sustained temperature anomaly above 30°C, a threshold not currently supported by any public forecast model.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.