Highest temperature in Paris on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak air temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 20 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. With the crowd-implied probability for any specific range sitting at 0% YES, the market currently reflects a lack of consensus or insufficient data for traders to commit to a specific outcome, a common state for weather events months before settlement.

Historically, mid-July in Paris frequently sees highs between 25°C and 35°C, with extreme heatwaves pushing temperatures above 40°C, as seen in 2019 and 2022. The current 0% probability suggests the market has not yet priced in these seasonal norms, likely because the settlement date is still over a year away, leaving too much uncertainty for algorithmic models to assign meaningful weights to specific ranges without real-time atmospheric inputs.

A programmatic trader would monitor the Météo-France seasonal forecasts and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) long-range models, which begin offering actionable data roughly six to nine months out. Key catalysts include the official release of the 2026 summer outlook from Météo-France, expected in late 2025, and any emerging climate anomalies like a strong Atlantic ridge or Mediterranean heat dome, which recent studies link to increased summer extremes in Western Europe [1]. Until these forecasts materialise, the market remains a null space for copy-trading bots or conditional order strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.