Highest temperature in Paris on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record its peak daytime temperature, a single metric that determines the resolution of a weather prediction market. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome is misleading; the market actually assigns a 56% chance to 34°C and 27% to 33°C, reflecting a strong consensus on a scorching heatwave[1]. Historically, early July in northern France has seen similar extremes, with recent days in July 2026 already hitting 36–37°C as a powerful heatwave pushed temperatures well above seasonal averages[4]. This context suggests the 0% figure is a data anomaly rather than a genuine forecast, as ensemble models for the following day (7 July) also cluster near 34–36°C[2].

A programmatic trader approaching this market would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the Paris-Le Bourget station, specifically the hourly maximums leading up to the settlement window at 12:00 UTC[1]. The primary catalyst is the persistence of the red heat wave alert issued by Meteo France, which covers 54 departments and indicates high temperatures will persist around the clock[8]. Traders should watch for any sudden shifts in wind direction or cloud cover, as dry conditions with almost no rain expected are currently driving the intense heat[4]. The market’s sharp surge on 4 July, where odds for 33°C jumped to 42%, confirms that price action is already reacting to these thermal dependencies[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.