Highest temperature in Paris on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport will record a daily high temperature on 26 May 2026, and this market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that reading in Celsius. The settlement source is Wunderground's historical weather database for the specific station, with data finalised after the calendar day closes. Traders automating conditional orders against this market should note the 12:00 UTC settlement window—sufficiently tight to exclude afternoon temperature spikes in continental Europe, meaning the recorded high typically reflects morning-to-midday conditions rather than late-day peaks.

May weather in the Paris region shows historical consistency that anchors probability distributions. Over the past two decades, late-May highs at Le Bourget have ranged between 18°C and 28°C, with a median around 21–23°C. Unseasonably warm years (2018, 2022) pushed into the upper 20s; cooler springs (2013, 2017) stayed in the low 20s. This clustering suggests the crowd's 0% YES probability reflects either an extremely narrow or implausible temperature band in the current market structure, rather than genuine weather risk. Programmatic traders should cross-reference the actual range thresholds against climatological percentiles before committing capital.

Relevant catalysts centre on European weather pattern forecasts issued 10–14 days prior. Météo-France and ECMWF models typically stabilise by mid-May, with high-pressure systems or Atlantic frontal passages driving material variance. No scheduled infrastructure changes or sensor relocations at Le Bourget are anticipated. Traders integrating API feeds from Wunderground should verify historical data lag (typically 2–4 hours post-observation) to avoid settlement disputes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.