Highest temperature in Paris on May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station will fall into one of several defined ranges. This market resolves based on historical weather data pulled from Weather Underground's archive, with settlement occurring at midday UTC. The resolution mechanism requires identifying the single highest reading across all times on that calendar day, then matching it to the corresponding temperature bracket.

May temperatures in the Paris region typically range between 15°C and 25°C, with occasional peaks above 28°C during warm spells. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that late May highs exceed 25°C roughly 60% of the time over the past two decades, whilst readings above 30°C occur in approximately 15% of years. The current 0% probability on higher ranges suggests the crowd is pricing in a cooler-than-average outcome, though this reflects typical May conditions rather than any specific meteorological signal. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should note that Le Bourget's urban location near Paris can produce readings 1–2°C higher than surrounding rural stations.

Seasonal weather patterns dominate this forecast; no scheduled events or policy announcements directly influence May temperatures. Traders monitoring European weather models—particularly ECMWF and Météo-France forecasts released in late May—will have the most actionable data. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 31 May, meaning morning forecasts provide the final opportunity to adjust positions before resolution. Automated systems tracking this market should flag any significant model shifts towards anomalous warmth in the week preceding settlement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.