Highest temperature in Qingdao on June 29?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak temperature recorded at Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport on 29 June 2026, with the market betting on whether it will exceed a specific threshold. Historically, mid-June in Qingdao sees average highs in the high 20s Celsius, rarely breaching 30°C unless a strong heatwave coincides with clear skies and low humidity. Past data shows the city’s hottest day reached 33.1°C in August 2018, but June extremes are typically more moderate, with average highs around 25°C [1][7]. This historical context explains why the current 2% YES probability is plausible: reaching the threshold requires an anomalous spike, not just typical seasonal warmth [4].

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the key catalysts are the arrival of subtropical ridges and the absence of coastal cloud cover, which can trap heat. Traders should monitor the Shandong Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecasts for heatwave advisories and the timing of the East Asian monsoon shift, which often brings cooling rains in late June. A recent report from AccuWeather notes that Qingdao’s May 2026 forecast indicated a gradual warming trend, suggesting June could see elevated temperatures if the monsoon delays [5]. Programmatically, one would set conditional orders to trigger when Wunderground’s hourly data shows temperatures approaching 28°C before noon, as the settlement window ends at 12:00 UTC, making early peaks decisive [2]. The 2% probability reflects the low likelihood of such a precise, early-morning spike occurring without a major atmospheric driver.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.