Highest temperature in San Francisco on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco’s peak heat on 14 July 2026 will be measured at the San Francisco International Airport Station, with the market resolving to the Fahrenheit range containing that day’s highest temperature. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome reflects a binary framing that likely misaligns with the actual resolution mechanism, which assigns probabilities across multiple temperature bands rather than a single yes/no condition.

Historical July highs at KSFO typically cluster between 75°F and 85°F, with 80–81°F representing the most frequent peak in recent decades. The market’s frontrunner outcome of “80–81°F” at 100% probability [1] suggests strong consensus around this band, making the 0% “YES” figure a probable artefact of how the binary option was constructed rather than a genuine forecast of extreme cold. Programmatic traders should parse the full distribution of temperature bands to identify mispriced tails, rather than relying on the binary probability alone.

Key catalysts include the daily Wunderground temperature feed for KSFO, which serves as the official resolution source, and any anomalous weather patterns such as marine layer breakdown or heat dome activity. Traders building bots should monitor the National Weather Service’s Pacific Region forecasts for July 2026, particularly any updates on coastal fog persistence or inland heat advection, as these directly influence airport-level maxima. No recent news announcements have altered the baseline expectation, but real-time dependency on the Wunderground API remains critical for automated settlement logic.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.