Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

The day’s outcome is the **highest temperature recorded at São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport** on 23 July 2026, so the practical task is to map the airport’s afternoon peak rather than the citywide feel. For programmatic monitoring, traders usually want a live feed plus a ruleset that converts Wunderground’s daily maximum into the market’s Celsius buckets, then updates exposure as the intraday high print moves through the listed ranges. At 6%? No—your current crowd price is effectively **0% YES**, which only makes sense if the market is still waiting for a narrower weather path or if the current contract ladder makes the front outcomes look detached from the live forecast.

Historically, São Paulo’s July climate is cool by Brazilian standards: typical July highs are around **23°C**, with lows near **12°C**, and the month is described as moderately humid rather than hot.[3] That makes mid-20s Celsius a natural reference band for this market, while much warmer outcomes generally require an unusual warm spell or strong subsidence. On the current board, the crowd’s leading bucket is **23°C** at **28%**, with **24°C** next at **24%**, which is consistent with a centred winter distribution rather than a tail-risk heat event.[1]

The main catalysts to watch are the local forecast path into the afternoon, any shift in cloud cover or rain timing, and whether the airport site differs from city forecasts enough to pull the maximum one bucket up or down. Public weather pages currently show a **patchy rain nearby** outlook and a forecast high of **76°F/24°C**, with rain probability still material.[2] For a bot workflow, the useful trigger is not the daily average but the intraday high watermark: if the forecast maximum steps above 24°C, conditional orders can be staged one bucket higher; if showers arrive early, the expected settlement range usually compresses back towards 22–24°C.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.