Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at São Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport on 9 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical data confirms that July is São Paulo’s coolest month, with average highs typically ranging between 11°C and 22°C, rarely exceeding 23°C. AccuWeather’s 2026 forecast for July indicates daily highs between 66°F and 81°F (approximately 19°C to 27°C), with an average of 74°F (23°C)[1]. This aligns with WorldWeatherOnline’s long-term averages, which place July highs at 22°C (72°F)[7]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for a 23°C hit is 0%, the market reflects the statistical likelihood that temperatures will remain below this threshold, consistent with seasonal norms rather than anomalous heatwaves.

Traders should monitor real-time meteorological updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, and watch for any sudden shifts in regional weather patterns, such as unexpected heat advection or cloud cover changes. While Brazil recently experienced record heat in Rio de Janeiro, with perceived temperatures reaching 62.3°C in March 2024, this event was geographically isolated and not indicative of São Paulo’s typical July climate[3][4]. No immediate weather announcements or seasonal forecasts suggest a deviation from historical trends for early July 2026. Programmatically, a power-user would deploy a bot to scrape Wunderground’s hourly data for SBGR, triggering conditional orders if temperatures approach 22°C, while cross-referencing with AccuWeather’s forecast to validate model confidence[1]. The absence of catalysts supporting a 23°C spike reinforces the 0% probability as a rational assessment of seasonal reality.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.